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30 YEAR HURRICANE CYCLE THEORY
Over the last 125 years there has been a 30 year cycle to major hurricane
landfalls in the United States.
Between 1895 and 1925 - most major hurricanes hit the Gulf coast, with
very few strikes along the Atlantic coast.
Starting in 1926 however, and continuing until the late 1950 's - hurricanes
struck the Atlantic coast.
In the early 1960's major hurricanes stopped striking the Atlantic
coast, while the Gulf states again saw a dramatic rise in the number of
major landfalling hurricanes. Between 1960 and 1985 - eleven major hurricanes
crossed the Gulf coast. Hurricane Carla (1961) and Hurricane Camille (1969),
two of the strongest hurricanes of record along the Gulf coast - hit only
eight years apart. Only two major hurricanes, Donna (1960) and weakening
Gloria (1985) hit the Atlantic coast in the 28 years between 1960 and 1988.
Since late 1980's - there has been some indication that major hurricane
activity is again shifting back to the Atlantic coast. Hurricane Hugo (1989),
Hurricane Andrew (1992), two of the most intense tropical cyclones to ever
strike the the United States eastern seaboard - hit only three years apart.
The North Carolina coast has seen a dramatic increase in hurricane landfalls
in the middle and late 1990's. Hurricanes Emily (1993) and Fran (1996),
caused some of the worst tropical cyclone damage in North Carolina since
the 1950's. Hurricanes Bonnie (1998), Floyd (1999), and Isabel (2003) were
close to major hurricane strength at landfall along the North Carolina
coast. If this trend continues, the Atlantic seaboard form the Florida
Keys to southeastern Massachusetts may experience a significant increase
in the number of major landfalling hurricanes over the next twenty-five
years.
Although the length of available records is short (125 - 150 years),
category 4 and 5 hurricane landfalls are quite rare. Only three category
5 hurricanes are known for certain to have ever effected the United States
over the last 125 years, the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane in the Florida Keys,
Hurricane Camille in 1969, and Hurricane Andrew in 1992. The Great Indianola,
Texas Hurricane 1886 may also have been of Category 5 intensity.
Read more about U.S. Hurricanes at this website. |